The Gold Coast seats that could help decide the Qld election

The Gold Coast is set to play a key role in deciding who will govern in Queensland for the next four years. 

The LNP holds 10 of the 11 seats on the Gold Coast with Gaven being Labor’s only seat on the Glitter Strip. 

Both leaders have spent a considerable amount of time on the Gold Coast during the campaign targeting the city’s marginal seats and making millions of dollars in election promises. 


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There are six electorates where the sitting MP holds the seat with a margin of less than 5 per cent. 

Gaven is the most marginal on the Gold Coast and the third most marginal in the whole state. Either party will probably need to win Gaven if it is going to win the election. 

Labor is hopeful of snatching the seats of Bonney and Currumbin from the LNP and fancies its chances in Burleigh. 

Both parties will also be keeping a close watch on the northern Gold Coast seat of Theodore. 

Coomera is the other marginal seat on the Gold Coast but the LNP is expected to hang on there. 

BONNEY

Held by the LNP’s Sam O’Connor on a margin of just 1.7 per cent. His main rival in this election is the ALP’s Ash Borg. The Greens’ Amin Javanmard is having another tilt at Bonney after running in 2017. One Nation (Michael Rix) and United Australia Party (David Bark) are also fielding candidates this time. Leana Marquet is running as an independent.

Sportsbet odds
LNP $1.25
ALP $4.00

BURLEIGH

Held by the LNP’s Michael Hart with a margin of 4.9 per cent. Mr Hart has held the seat since 2012 but is facing a long line of challengers this time around. Labor has recruited high profile candidate Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew as its candidate. Also running are Georgie Batty (One Nation), Scott Wallace (Animal Justice Party), Ingrid Weber (Legalise Cannabis QLD Party), Rachel Mebberson (Greens), Carlo Filingeri (United Australia Party). 

The Greens polled strongly at the 2017 election with 16.1 per cent of the vote with the party to preference the ALP. One Nation and United Australia Party will direct their preferences to the LNP. 

Sportsbet odds
LNP $1.30
ALP $3.25

CURRUMBIN 

Held by the LNP’s Laura Gerber who won the seat at a by-election in March following the retirement of Jann Stuckey. 

She holds the seat with a margin of 3.3 per cent. Her main rival is Labor’s Kaylee Campradt who is having her second crack at the seat after also contesting the March by-election. Less than 570 votes separated the LNP and ALP at the by-election.  

The battle for Currumbin has been made even more interesting after the husband of Jann Stuckey entered the race as an independent. He’s expected to a draw decent number of votes from the LNP and is also directing his preferences the ALP. 

Sportsbet odds
LNP $1.90
ALP $1.95

GAVEN

The tightest seat on the Gold Coast, held by Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon on a margin of just 0.7 per cent. Ms Scanlon got over the line in 2017 on the back of Greens preferences but will have to deal with a bigger field of candidates this time around. 

Her main rival is the LNP’s Kirsten Jackson. Also running are Sharon Sewell (One Nation), Suzette Lukyen (Legalise Cannabis QLD Party), Reyna Drake (Civil Liberties & Motorists Party), Gary Beck (United Australia Party), Sally Spain (Greens). 

The Greens are once again directing their preferences to Labor, while both One Nation and UAP will preference the LNP over Labor. 

Sportsbet odds
ALP $1.50
LNP $2.50 

COOMERA

Held by the LNP’s Michael Crandon on a margin of 3.5 per cent. Mr Crandon has held the seat since 2009. The seat has become more marginal each election with the area as the area experiences major population growth. 

The ALP’s candidate is mental health nurse Chris Johnstone. Also running are Lissy Gavranich for the Greens, Heath Gallagher (United Australia Party), She D’Montford (Informed Medical Options Party), Daryl Prout (Animal Justice Party), Kris Bourbon (independent), Tabita Wilkinson (One Nation). 

One Nation polled very strongly in the 2017 election with more than 20 per cent of the vote, however that is expected to fall significantly this time. 

Sportsbet odds
LNP $1.15
ALP $5.00

THEODORE

Held by the LNP’s Mark Boothman on a margin of 3.7 per cent. Mr Boothman won the newly created seat in 2017 after previously holding the seat of Albert which was later abolished. 

Running for Labor is Tracey Bell who ran for the seat of Moncrieff in the 2019 federal election. Also in the race is the Greens John Woodlock, Anita Holland (One Nation), Robert Marks (United Australia Party) and Gale Oxenford (independent). 

Another seat where One Nation polled very strongly in 2017 with 19 per cent of the first preference vote.

Sportsbet odds
LNP $1.50
ALP $2.50

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