IT may not feel like it at the moment but it looks like the Gold Coast is in for a warmer and drier winter than average.
The Bureau of Meteorology has released it’s winter climate outlook, showing much of eastern and central Australia is unlikely to receive the extra rainfall many have been hoping for.
“Winter’s certainly looking like it will be warm in Queensland,” The Bureau’s manager of long-range forecasting Dr Andrew Watkins said.
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“High odds of above average temperatures for much of the state. It’s also looking drier than average for much of the state as well, particularly in central and southeastern areas.
“So generally looking quite warm, looking quite dry,” Dr Watkins said.
He said it’s being driven by fairly close to El Nino conditions out in the tropical and Pacific Ocean.
“That tends to keep thing a bit direr and also a bit warmer in Queensland but they’re going to ease off as we get further into winter so hopefully a bit of an easing off in the conditions as we go through the season,” Dr Watkins said.
The outlook also predicts a pretty similar story across much of the country.
“Southeastern Australia could see a dry start to winter, with the models showing June rainfall is likely to be below average in New South Wales, Victoria, eastern South Australia and the Northern Territory,” he said.
“Drier than average conditions typically mean more cloud-free nights, which increases the risk of frost in susceptible areas.”
“This certainly doesn’t mean we will have no rainfall over winter – it is the southern wet season after all – but it does support the model outlook for a drier than average winter, with the possibility of more evaporation than normal,” Dr Watkins said.
“In terms of snow cover – historically depths are lower in late winter and spring during positive Indian Ocean Dipole snow seasons, but on the flip side, the drier and colder air at night make for great snow making conditions.”
The Bureau will release it’s summary of autumn on Monday but preliminary figures show autumn 2019 is likely to go down as one of Australia’s five warmest autumns on record.
In Queensland, it was one of the top ten warmest on record for the state despite the rain brought on by two tropical cyclones.